All Things Techie With Huge, Unstructured, Intuitive Leaps

Probable Location of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370

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Probable Location of Flight MH370

I have been amazingly accurate with my inferences and predictions about Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370.  Days before it was even intimated, I put out the possibility that it was in the Indian Ocean.  And then a couple of days later before the authorities admitted it, I said that it was a deliberate act from the flight deck.  I even named the co-pilot as the rogue character (see entries below this one in this blog).

So here I go again.  Where to look?  Well we do know that the last satellite transmission was somewhere in the red arc pictured above.  It is cut off by the blue circle as the maximum distance and amount of fuel that the aircraft had.

So let's assume that the co-pilot wanted to fly the plane to kingdom come, until it fell from the sky never to be seen again.  What he is hoping for (and you read this here first) is that the plane is never found.  And it may never be.  My guess is that the flight path would circle around the island of Sumatra just in case there was radar there.  Remember, they wanted to avoid radar.  Then they would just fly straight south until the plane stopped flying.  They wouldn't want to come too near Australia on one side, and didn't want Madagascar's radar picking them up, so they flew pretty much south.

The distance traveled would be a function of speed.  My guess is that they would travel at "normal" airline speeds -- not too fast and not too slow.  That would bring them close but not all the way to the maximum distance arc.   So if I were in charge of the search, I would start looking on the arc about 2000 kilometers off Perth Australia due west and look up and down the arc there. It stands to reason that MH370 is somewhere along that arc.  And if the plane is found, I am willing to bet that the pilot would found with either a bullet, or massive trauma to the head, and he was dead around the time of the turn west from the Beijing flight plan.

Time will tell, again!

1 comment:

  1. Can you overlay this plot with the ocean currents?