Superrationality And The Fact That Bitcoin Has Become A Religion

Superrationality

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: In economics and game theory, a participant is considered to have superrationality (or renormalized rationality) if they have perfect rationality (& thus maximize their own utility) but assume that all other players are superrational too & that a superrational individual will always come up with the same strategy as any other superrational thinker when facing the same problem. It is the triumph of Reason over Dogma. When it comes to Blockchain and Bitcoin, Superrationality is very rare. In the case of Blockchain, a lot of "Blockchain consultants" are like a guy with a hammer where everything looks like a nail. ICOs are the same way -- they want to tokenize everything, not realizing that there is no one size fits all.  Not everything benefits from tokenization.  Some do not realize that blockchain has another intrinsic function that is highly overlooked. It can organize human activity in a way that it has never been organized before, either on a virtual or real plane. This area is highly unexploited (and profitable). And Bitcoin unfortunately has become a religion. Rabid believers buy and hold through amazing cyclical volatility, while superrationists buy low, sell high and repeat when necessary.

Huge Hilarious Facebook Ad Fail

This ad is gut-splitting hilarious. I went to the NASDAQ site to check on my favorite "stock most likely to go down the crapper" and I saw a couple of funny, ironic things.

First, a full 74% of the public amateur pundits who waste time with an account on NASDAQ, rate Facebook stock a BUY. It is these people who's money is taken when the market whipsaws their positions senseless. It is these people who bought early and are hoping to get their money back.

And it is probably these people to whom the above ad is aimed at. I took this ad directly off the NASDAQ site. For those of you without glasses, the ad says that if you invested in Facebook after the IPO, you were likely too late!!! FAIL !!!!!!!

But if you send this company money, they will tell you also how to get in early at the high price of Facebook, not at the low price that it is two weeks later. And if you act now, they will throw in a set of John-the-Baptist steak knives and Dead Sea Scroll shower curtains added to your order.

It's the John Q. Public way of investing -- buy high and sell low. Now if you were an institutional investor, you would have been tipped off by Morgan Stanley et al, that the earnings, estimates and outlooks were being revised in the general direction of one's sphincter muscle, and you would not have lost money. Or if you were as smart as Warren Buffett, you would have stood aside. But you aren't. Like poor old Abner Snodgrass who will take piano lessons to try and get a date, you will send your money to get in early on other stock market losers.

All this to say, is that PT Barnum had it right about one born every minute -- especially with this ad pictured above.

But never mind the ad, have I got a deal for you. Send me $50 and I will make you happy (limited time offer).

Invest in Facebook ~ Not on your life

Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider Facebook to be dead man walking. They will become like MySpace. Why? Because they are not making money the way they should. They are trying to monetize themselves and change the way they operate by selling private data. In the words of Jimmy Fallon~ Facebook is selling 330 million shares. Great now you can own a piece of the website that completely owns you.

Not only will they alienate their user base, but they have a couple of problems. First, many of their users are fake. The private data is not real. Facebook themselves will publicly admit that "at least 5%" of their users are fake. Using their figures, that means that 50 million Facebook accounts are fake. I'll bet that the real number is much higher than they are willing to admit.

Secondly, for a billion users, they are only making $3 or $4 dollars per user. That is not enough to sustain the business model long term. Secondly, it tells you that their paradigm is not suited to business. Several Fortune 500 companies have abandoned their Facebook storefronts.

The biggest reason that you shouldn't invest in Facebook, is that the smartest stock player in the world, Warren Buffett is giving Facebook stock a pass. His chief investment officer had strong words about not investing in Facebook. You can read the article by following this link:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/06/news/buffett-facebook/

So, that is why I am not investing in Facebook, and it further reinforces my belief that Facebook, like Microsoft, has had its day. The only way to go is down. Microsoft has already turned that corner.