All Things Techie With Huge, Unstructured, Intuitive Leaps

I oughta be a stock analyst instead of a geek

Instead of rising with a bullet, Facebook stock is deflating like a bullet wound in a balloon. I ought to be a stock analyst instead of a geek. I can pick them better than widely reported analyst Arvind Bhatia. His total paeans of praise for Facebook is either due to lack of objectivity (through payment or self-delusion) or simply that he made a huge mistake, and really isn't that smart when it comes to the stock market. It reminds me of the time where a kindergarten class outperformed a bunch of Wall Street analysts by picking stocks that they knew and loved (McDonalds, ToysRUs etc).

This Facebook IPO price was so wrong on so many levels, and yet greed made the underwriters do it anyway. It is now 18 percent below IPO price. The hedgefunds who bought the stock are not going to have a good year. Warren Buffet was vindicated.

Now two days on the market doesn't mean much in the long term, but it means a lot to the optics of the deal. The market is waking up after a 2:00 am orgy and finding itself in bed with a ugly woman, a male midget and Doberman (with all due respect to plainer women, smaller men and angrier dogs).

The correction is taking place. My bold prediction is that it WILL reach the $14 per share mark where it belongs. Actually it belongs lower than that, but lets see if they are made of sterner stuff.

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